Belmont's Full Card Top Picks & Long Shots, our BalWaL (Bet a little Win a Lot) play of the day, our baseline Pick Six ticket selections, our recommended plays for the terrific under card, and our pre-race analysis and plays for the Belmont Stakes.
First our analysis of the Belmont Stakes race:
What a historical day this could be! It would be so great for horse racing, I can't have my heart in any other place than pulling for a Big Brown victory. However, in horse racing you have to go with your brain, not your heart. My analysis actually gives BB a low chance of taking the Belmont Stakes and the long eluded Triple Crown. Why?
#1 - Two huge Back to Back efforts in taking down the Derby and Preakness. A third big number at 1 1/2 miles with 3 weeks rest is unlikely.
#2 - The horse wasn't contested in either race. There will likely be a gut wrenching competitive effort to make the final 1/8 mile in this one.
#3 - This field is not the chopped liver you've been reading about the last 2 weeks. I give 3 of them an excellent chance to reach the wire first. We've got some still improving and gutsy horses going here!
#4 - The #1 Post Position is the absolute worst place to be in this race, requiring more navigating and decision making than you want , plus it's so easy to keep trapped, which I kind of expect and may even cause them to try for the early lead, which would be a disastrous mistake.
I'm assuming a fairly quick first quarter and half with BB just back of the front runners, makes his move a little earlier and vies for the lead at 3/4 pole, but gets passed late by Casino Drive, Dennis of Cork, and Macho Again for a laboring 4th place finish. Late word, was Casino Drive may be a late scratch. If so , see BB's making the Tri, underneath. In addition to the plays listed below, I'll be playing 2 separate Trifecta tickets as follows 3-4-5 over 3-4-5 over All and also All over 3-4-5 over 3-4-5 at $48 per ticket , a pretty reasonable play of $96 with big payoff potential and both tickets could be winners. If Casino Drive is scratched, move #1 Big Brown in as a replacement for the 5.
Balwal (Bet a little Win a Lot) play of the day:
$1 Superfecta Box in Race 11 ---- 1-3-4-5 ($24 Play)
Our $36 Baseline P6 ticket recommendation:
R6-- single the 7 (just need to run his race)
R7-- 1-5-10 (many will single the 10)
R8-- 1-2 (many will single the 2, like the 1 as well)
R9-- single the 5 (in a mild upset)
R10-- 5-9-10 (terrific P3 all leg)
R11-- single the 5 (then 3-4-1 in order if scratches)
Full Card - Belmont Park Top Picks and Long Shots:
R1-- Top Picks 1-7, Long shots 8-2-4
R2-- Top Picks 6-7-2, Long shots 10-1
R3-- Top Picks 5-8-4, Long shot 7
R4-- Top Picks 4-6-8, Long shots 5-10
R5-- Top Picks 2-9-12, Long shots 7-6
R6-- Top Picks 7-4-2, Long shots 8-5
R7-- Top Picks 5-10-1, Long shot 4
R8-- Top Picks 1-2-3
R9-- Top Picks 5-3-2, Long shots 6-9
R10- Top Picks 9-5-10, Long shots 8-1
R11- Top Picks 5-3-4-1, Long shots 6-9
R12- Top Picks 3-9-2, Long shots 13-5
R13- Top Picks 3-13-1, Long shots 14-8
Recommended Best Bets for the day:
R1 $1 Tri 1-7-8 over 1-2-7-8 over 1-2-4-7-8 ($27)
R2 $1 Tri 6-7-10 over 2-6-7-10 over 1-2-6-7-10($27)
R3 $1 P3 R3-- 5-8, R4-- 4-5-6-8-10, R5-- 2-6-7($30)
R6 $1 Tri 5-7-8 over 4-5-7-8 over 2-4-5-7-8 ($27)
R10 $1 Tri 5-8-9 over 5-8-9-10 over 1-5-8-9-10($27)
R10 $1 P3 R10-- 1-5-8-9-10, R11- 1-3-4-5-6-9, R12-
-- single the 3 for $30 play or use 3-13 for $60 play
R11 $1 Superfecta 3-4-5 over 3-4-5 over 1-3-4-5 over 1-3-4-5-6-9 (if 5 a scratch , move 1 in to replace and use 7 to replace where 1 was underneath)($36)
Recommended group ticket play:
Have everyone chip in and buy a $1 TBX ($210 Play)in the Belmont Stakes using 1-3-4-5-6-7-9. If Big Brown runs out you'll split a big pot!
Ron & Paul
P.S. - Hollywood Park also has a great card today, including a large P6 carryover.