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"On Toward the Money " - April 17, 2007

 

With May 5th, Kentucky Derby Day, rapidly approaching, we start narrowing in on specifics. Specifically, how many horses will really contend becomes the objective. If you read my first two articles, you already know not to eliminate contenders due to high odds, so remain open to any high odds horses. At this point I've got it down to ten of them, and 7 of the 10 are long odds. The ten may become even fewer as some questions remain on whether a couple of them will even be entered. 

The Arkansas Derby has most likely identified your morning line favorite, Curlin, who blew away the field by 10 1/2 lengths. With few preps remaining, Curlin will likely catch most of the headlines, especially since Smarty Jones impressive victory 3 years back sort of validated the Arkansas Derby winner as a legitimate contender. While I heavily favored Curlin as our Single in last week's Premier Pick Four, don't think for a minute he's my pick for the Derby. Scat Daddy's victory in Florida Derby also ensures he will take a lot of money and a deservedly close second favorite billing. He's not our Top choice either!

Like all races, but particularly this one, PP's (past performances) are only a portion of the handicapping. Of course, they are important, but be very careful not to be overly influenced by them, they provide useful information on the recent past.......The Derby is all about who's going to be most ready on race day. For the horse player, it's all about which group of horses will be most ready to finish in the Trifecta or Superfecta. We are more interested in figuring which group of horses will be "in the money", than the individual winner, as most often that is where the big money is made.

Think about it.......which is more fun? Betting $100 to win on a 12:1 shot for a $1200 take or $12 on a superfecta which pays you over $10,000 or much more?

Lesson here is to start narrowing "your group" and embrace the higher likely odds horses, which give indications of contending potential.

Recommended Wagering Strategy - April 10, 2007

Three factors enter into the Kentucky Derby like no other race.

#1 Every entry will be running like their life depends upon the outcome. This is the one race for immortality. Once a winner of this race and everything subsequent is secondary. The very best versus the wanna be's and the just wanna be there's. The outcome of this 2 minutes will be a life changing experience for all the connections and often for many who select the winning exotic tickets. (Remember the $1million superfecta ticket on '05)

#2 The field is going to be large. Given a huge field and a huge crowd of erupting noise at the beginning of the race and at the head of the stretch, ANYTHING, can happen. Getting bumped, trapped or cut off is to be expected. Holes magically open for some and close for others. Amazingly, the best horse usually wins and equally amazing is the best horse is often a Longshot or at least a very good price.

#3 The pools for this race are largest in North America and the most distorted. The pools and distortions extend through the whole card that day, but are most evident in the races connected to the Derby race itself. For instance, Pick 3's and Pick 4's with the Derby Leg included are terrific plays (Even if the fav's win).

Wagering Tip #1 ----- Select a Pick Three ticket with the Kentucky Derby Leg as an ALL leg. Remember, ANYTHING can happen in this leg. Try to find some good price horses, with a real chance in the other legs. (Our $1 Pk 3 winning ticket in "05 had 2 horses in the first leg, 3 horses in the second, and ALL in the Derby.....paid over $10,000 for many of our customers that wonderful Derby Day).

Wagering Tip #2 ----- Don't let very long odds scare you into reducing your bet. If you like the horse and he's 60 to 1 or more, play him across the board and in your exotics. He's actually got a better chance to win in this race than in any other, where the likely favorite has so many obstacles to overcome.

Wagering Tip #3 ---- This is a day to make MORE exotic plays. You need to hit only one to be a large net winner for the day and the excitement of the Kentucky Derby extends throughout the card.
Often some longshot just handles the frenzied environment better than the horse that should win....take advantage of this.

Wagering Tip #4 ---- Play a small but powerful P6 and P4 ticket. Don't blow a lot on these very hard to hit scenarios, save that money for Trifecta's , Superfecta's and Pick Threes; however, I do recommend taking a small price ticket shot, which includes the Long shots you like and/or the ones we recommend. There is nothing in the world like hitting a 5 or 6 figure P6 on a small ticket (under $40).

Wagering Tip #5 ---- If you are a regular player, increase your bankroll for the day. Save out 20% of your net win money between now and the Kentucky Derby. I generally will play about 2 to 3 times my normal amount on Derby Day. The opportunities on this day are just so much better than the average day At The Track.

Wagering Tip #6 ---- If you haven't already, buy our entire Triple Crown package at the discounted early bird price of $150. This package will include our Full Card top picks and long shots, our BalWal play of the day, our P6 baseline ticket selections, and our "Best Bets" for each of the Triple Crown races. Who knows, perhaps we'll beat our Triple Crown record, set in 2005, where our suggested $200 in plays for each of the Triple Crown races returned over $21,000.